Victoria consumed the lowest level of electricity on record—just 1,564 MW—on December 31, 2023. It occurred at 1:00 PM on New Year’s Eve. Solar PV panels installed on buildings and residences were supplying 66% of the electricity demanded at that moment. Every year, Victoria’s lowest level of electricity consumption falls by around 400 MW. Specialists anticipate that the trend will persist.

How Low Can Power Use Go?

Victoria also has certain thresholds on how much electricity needs to be consumed in order to maintain the power system operating optimally. Those thresholds shift based on how technologies change and the power system changes.

Normally, Victoria requires a minimum of 640 MW of electricity consumption to maintain the system stable. During emergencies, this may be between 640 MW and 1,610 MW. These figures rely on ensuring sufficient power plants are operating and that electricity can be transferred safely between states.

What Impacts These Limits?

Victoria can manage less electricity consumption if a few conditions are met: the Basslink cable (which runs between Tasmania and Victoria) is operating, South Australia’s electricity demand is moderate, and some of the power stations in the Latrobe Valley remain online to maintain voltage levels.

If Basslink is not functioning, or if a large number of power lines are out of commission, Victoria requires more power stations operating in order to maintain the system stable. If South Australia is consuming very little electricity as well, it complicates the matter even further.

Analysts compare actual use of electricity with forecasted use to see how low demand can become. They also look to see whether sufficient backup power exists that can be brought online to raise demand if needed. By 2025, new regulations will assist in managing solar power to avoid issues during low-electricity-use periods.

How Much Extra Power Might Be Needed?

On certain weekends and holidays in late 2024, demand could fall so low that Emergency Backstop will be required. Victoria could require up to 1,000 MW of additional power by spring 2025 to maintain system balance.

How Much Backup Power is Available?

Victoria had around 468 MW of additional power in October 2023 but utilized only 71 MW. It could be in need of approximately 957 MW of additional power by October 2025 to maintain the system’s safety.

Electricity providers in Victoria have various methods of managing low electricity demand. One of them is lowering electricity from small power plants and solar PV panels. Some providers are able to remotely control these generators, and most of them already generate less electricity when prices are low.

Another means of balancing electricity consumption is by changing when individuals heat their water. Certain companies are able to switch on electric water heaters during the day when demand is low.

Regulating Solar Panel Output

New regulations from October 2024 will enable companies to control electricity from small solar PV panels. This will ensure the power system remains stable when demand is extremely low.

Power companies can also adjust voltage levels to lower the amount of solar power fed into the grid. This is only done in emergencies, though, as it can harm electrical equipment.

A number of power companies in Victoria—AusNet Distribution, Jemena, Citipower, Powercor, and United Energy—have given estimates of how much additional power they can provide if necessary to maintain the system’s safety.

Emergency Backstop Plan for Victoria (As of July 2024)

Victoria is planning a backup plan to keep power stable during periods of low electricity demand. This plan involves various means of controlling electricity, including small power generators, adjusting hot water use, and regulating solar power output.

There were roughly 64 MW of small power generators assisting the system in 2023. In 2025, this should increase to 90 MW. Hot water shifting will also supply 120 MW of backup power. There is another strategy, known as Distributed PV Management, which might offer up to 293 MW in 2024 and 2025.

By October 2025, Victoria aims to have around 301 MW of standby power. But in the event of failure in the roll-out of these initiatives, a mere 74 MW could be available. Strong efforts and investments could push the figure up to 405 MW.

Power Supply Challenges

Victoria might require almost 1,000 MW of emergency backup power in the worst-case scenario by 2025. Currently, October 2024 available backup stands at an estimated 477 MW. In the case of not enough demand for electricity, there are chances that some circuits need to be closed by power companies, which can affect customers.

Steps Ahead for Enhanced Emergency Backstop

Energy providers and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) are cooperating to ensure preparations for potential shortages of power. Some of the major measures involve:

-Deploying Emergency Backstop requirements to Victoria.

-Implementing infrastructure to monitor and enforce Emergency Backstop regulations.

-Enabling power firms to respond to AEMO directions rapidly, optimally in 10 minutes.

-Increasing schemes such as hot water shifting and voltage control to enhance Emergency Backstop.

-Managing power during periods of low demand, such as through improved coordination between various power companies.

By October 2025, Victoria must have sound Emergency Backstop arrangements in place to deal with extreme circumstances. This involves sophisticated planning, speedy response, and collaboration between the energy suppliers and regulators to guarantee the stability of the power supply.